GEORGE TOWN: Is Perikatan Nasional (PN) likely to spring a surprise in Penang in the forthcoming state election or talks of the coalition able to win 20 of the 40 state seats now mere psych war?
While the odds may be stacked against the coalition, their confidence stems from the wave in the 15th General Election (GE15), which they are hoping the Malay wave will be retained.
Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Dr Oh Ei Sun says, at least for Penang, PN is gunning to win all Malay-majority seats.
"And if many Chinese voters are not coming out to vote, they may pick up a few Chinese-majority seats, which can win them a simple majority in the state assembly and thereby enable them to form the next government.
"Of course there are always elements of psych war in all election rhetoric, but I think they have the basis to be confident, as they command Malay support overwhelmingly," he told the New Straits Times.
During the state PN convention here yesterday, PN chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin had said that the coalition was likely to win 20 state seats in Penang and all they needed was one more state seat to have a simple majority in the 40-seat state assembly.
"We are taking this as a challenge.
"Although winning in the six states will not have any impact at the federal level, it will be easier for us to take control at the federal level when the right time comes," he was quoted as saying.
PN has completed 99 per cent of seat discussions for the six state elections.
Besides Penang, Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu will also have their state elections.
Oh said for Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, he believed the three states "are gone to PN".
He said for Negri Sembilan, (out of a scale of 10 in likelihood of winning the state government), PH stood at six while the Pakatan Harapan - Barisan Nasional coalition, a four.
For Selangor, he added, it was 5:5 while Penang, 6:4 in favour of the PH - BN coalition.
"I don't think the people are really unhappy with the unity government's performance. It is just that an increasing number of primarily Malay voters have come to prioritise religiosity over socioeconomic performance when it comes to electoral choices.
"And when it comes to religiosity, nothing in Malaysia can beat Pas," he added.
Oh also opined that PN should name Penang PN chairman Datuk Dominic Lau as the chief minister candidate, should the coalition win, and put him in a safe Malay-majority seat.
"That way, there is at least still a semblance of the unspoken rule that Penang Chief Minister must be Chinese," he noted.
Meanwhile, Universiti Sains Malaysia's Professor Dr Sivamurugan Pandian also told the NST that PN was confident because of the wave in the GE15 and hoped the Malay wave would be retained.
He stressed that PN's chances would be at the 15 Malay-dominated seats.
"I think, to win, is still difficult for PN, but the coalition may be able to make inroads to Malay-majority seats.
"So, yes, (their confidence) is to manage perception among voters," he pointed out.
Sivamurugan said there might be certain issues, especially cost of living and some using 3R issues, referring to race, religion and ruler, to make changes in the Malay-majority areas.
"It will also be interesting to watch if there is a protest vote among Umno or they decide not to come out to vote because of the new arrangement with DAP," he said.
Nonetheless, he said, PN should name their "poster boy" for Penang and other states in order to give a clearer picture to voters on who would be sworn in if they win.
© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd
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